The West’s final opportunity to impose UN sanctions as part of the nuclear deal will expire by October.
Donald Trump’s potential second term as president of the United States could create a tumultuous path for Iran, leading to a range of possible outcomes in its relations with the West, analysts suggest.
US leaders, alongside Israeli officials, have openly discussed military actions targeting Iran’s key nuclear facilities and critical infrastructure, such as power plants and oil facilities. Despite these threats, Iran’s leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, remains resolute, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) conducting extensive military drills focused on protecting vital sites.
A shift in strategy, but in which direction?
For over twenty years, Iran’s relationship with the West has largely revolved around its nuclear program and efforts to prevent the development of a nuclear weapon. Tehran has consistently insisted it does not seek to acquire weapons of mass destruction.
However, recent discussions among Iran’s top political and military figures suggest a potential shift in its stance. As security threats escalate, some officials have considered altering the country’s longstanding policy of not pursuing nuclear weapons. Two distinct perspectives are emerging: one favors engaging with the US, including on the nuclear issue, while the other advocates for pursuing nuclear weapons, particularly in response to diminished deterrence against Israel and setbacks to Iran’s regional influence, noted Naysan Rafati, senior Iran analyst at the Crisis Group.
“If the more diplomatic faction prevails, it would still require Washington’s willingness to engage,” Rafati said. “Given Iran’s vulnerabilities, the US may be inclined to increase pressure rather than offer concessions.”
The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and setbacks to Iran’s “axis of resistance” in the region have undermined one of the pillars of Iran’s defense strategy. Additionally, Iran is grappling with harsh sanctions that have worsened its already fragile economy, driving down its national currency and increasing inflation, alongside a growing energy crisis. Amid these difficult economic conditions, President Masoud Pezeshkian’s government appears to be seeking greater engagement with the West. Iranian diplomats are expected to visit Europe later this month for talks with the E3—France, Germany, and the United Kingdom.
The framework under consideration mirrors the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), where some economic pressure on Iran could be eased in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. However, no formal agreement has emerged, and current talks are more about clarifying viewpoints.
A different landscape
The situation today contrasts with the years of negotiations that led to the JCPOA. In 2018, Trump withdrew from the deal and imposed severe sanctions on Iran. He also ordered the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the top Iranian general who was a key figure in Iran’s regional strategy.
“Unlike during his first term, the Europeans are now more aligned with US policy,” said Ellie Geranmayeh of the European Council on Foreign Relations, noting that the European powers have increasingly supported the maximum pressure campaign due to rising tensions with Tehran.
This year is expected to bring clarity to the future of Iran’s nuclear program, according to Abas Aslani, senior research fellow at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies. Several clauses of the JCPOA have already expired, and there is a greater willingness to negotiate a new agreement, particularly as a crucial sunset clause—the “snapback” provision allowing the West to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran—will expire in October 2025.
Geranmayeh emphasized that the snapback provision is a critical leverage point for the E3, though its activation could lead to unpredictable escalation. Europe will likely focus its efforts on avoiding escalation and fostering diplomatic talks until the October deadline.
The real challenge, however, may lie in how European leaders respond if Trump demands the immediate reinstatement of sanctions as part of broader negotiations on transatlantic security matters. The outcome could either escalate tensions dramatically or lead to a limited agreement on Iran’s nuclear program, depending on how negotiations unfold.
In recent months, Iran has ramped up its nuclear activities, including installing thousands of new centrifuges and enriching uranium to near-weapon-grade levels, with enough fissile material for multiple bombs, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This increases Iran’s leverage but also raises the risk of military intervention by the US or Israel, warned Rafati from the Crisis Group.
“We are in a holding pattern as we await Trump’s return to office and a clearer understanding of his administration’s approach to Iran,” Geranmayeh said. She added that while Iran is unlikely to make significant nuclear advancements early in 2025, the situation could rapidly change depending on whether Trump escalates his pressure campaign or prioritizes diplomacy.
